Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Great Depression 2 - Indicators

29 indicators of the coming Great Depression 2 BY 2011 -
* By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch

Every day there is more breaking news, proof Wall Street's greed is already back to "business as usual" and in denial, grabbing more and more from the new "Bailouts-R-Us" bonanza of free taxpayer cash and credits, like two-year-olds in a toy store at Christmas -- anything to boost earnings, profits and stock prices, and keep those bonuses and salaries flowing, anything to blow a new bubble.
Scan these 30 "leading indicators." Each problem has one or more possible solutions, but lacks unified political support. Time's running out. We're already at the edge. Add up the trillions in debt: Any collective solution will only compound our problems, because the cumulative debt will overwhelm us, make matters worse:
1)America's credit rating may soon be downgraded below AAA
2)Fed refusal to disclose $2 trillion loans, now the new "shadow banking system"
3)Congress has no oversight of $700 billion, and Paulson's Wall Street Trojan Horse
4)King Henry Paulson flip-flops on plan to buy toxic bank assets, confusing markets
5)Goldman, Morgan lost tens of billions, but planning over $13 billion in bonuses
this year
6)AIG bails big banks out of $150 billion in credit swaps, protects shareholders
before taxpayers
7)American Express joins Goldman, Morgan as bank holding firms, looking for Fed
8)Treasury sneaks corporate tax credits into bailout giveaway, shifts costs to
9)State revenues down, taxes and debt up; hiring, spending, borrowing add even more
10)State, municipal, corporate pensions lost hundreds of billions on derivative
11)Hedge funds: 610 in 1990, almost 10,000 now. Returns down 15%, liquidations up
12)Consumer debt way up, now at $2.5 trillion; next area for credit meltdowns
13)Fed also plans to provide billions to $3.6 trillion money-market fund industry
14)Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are bleeding cash, want to tap taxpayer dollars
15)Washington manipulating data: War not $600 billion but estimates actually $3
16)Hidden costs of $700 billion bailout are likely $5 trillion; plus $1 trillion
Street write-offs
17)Commodities down, resource exporters and currencies dropping, triggering a global
18)Big three automakers near bankruptcy; unions, workers, retirees will suffer
19)Corporate bond market, both junk and top-rated, slumps more than 25%
20)Retailers bankrupt: Circuit City, Sharper Image, Mervyns; mall sales in free fall
21)Unemployment heading toward 8% plus; more 1930's photos of soup lines
22)Government policy is dictated by 42,000 myopic, highly paid, greedy lobbyists
23)China's sees GDP growth drop, crates $586 billion stimulus; deflation is now
global, hitting even Dubai
24)Despite global recession, U.S. trade deficit continues, now at $650 billion
25)The 800-pound gorillas: Social Security, Medicare with $60 trillion in unfunded
26)Now 46 million uninsured as medical, drug costs explode
27)New-New Deal: U.S. planning billions for infrastructure, adding to unsustainable
28)Outgoing leaders handicapping new administration with huge liabilities
29)The "antitaxes" message is a new bubble, a new version of the American dream offering a free lunch, no sacrifices, exposing us to more false promises.

Will the next meltdown, the third of the 21st Century, trigger a second Great Depression? Or will the 2007-08 crisis simply morph into a painful extension of today's mess to 2011 and beyond, with no new bull market, no economic recovery as our new president hopes?

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